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Methodology

HOW WE SELECT OUR PICKS

Step 1
Multi-Model Ensemble

Six independent models — Poisson, Bayesian, Dixon-Coles, Elo, Random Forest, XGBoost — each analyze every match from a different angle. Outputs are combined using dynamically optimized weights.

Step 2
Edge Detection

We compare model probabilities against live bookmaker odds across 7 markets. Only matches where our true probability exceeds the implied odds by a meaningful threshold make the shortlist.

Step 3
League-Calibrated Thresholds

31 leagues are classified into T1/T2/T3 tiers based on 28,000+ match backtests. Edge thresholds vary by league and market — only proven profitable combinations pass the filter.

Step 4
Verified & Transparent

Every pick is logged before kick-off and graded automatically. 355 verified picks on public record — no cherry-picking, no hidden losses, full P&L visible.

Updated daily at 8 AM CET · Picks pre-computed and cached for instant loading · 106 ML features

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